Seasonal Research 6/30/08

I'm not feeling to great tonight, so I'm just posting the research. I'll try to update the break outs and watch list tomorrow before open tomorrow.

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily Research 6/30/08

I'm not feeling to great tonight, so I'm just posting the research. I'll try to update the break outs and watch list tomorrow before open tomorrow.

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Seasonal Research 6/27/08

Breakout Watches

Up

ILMN. . . . 80.00 Target 108.00 confirmed
KGC . . . . 22.00 Target 26.00 confirmed
GG. . . . . . 46.25 Target 58.00 confirmed
AZK . . . . 5.30 Target 7.40
NFG . . . . 59.00 Target 63.71


Down

BMRN 31.00 Target 21.00 confirmed
GILD . . . . 56.96 Target 60.00 52.50


Option Watches

ILMN call
KGC call
GG call
BMRN put
GILD put

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily Research 6/27/08

Breakout Watches

Up

DRYS . . . . . 87.76 target 95.91
FWLT . . . . .75.00 target 83
TRA . . . . . . 46.50 target 62.00 confirmed
V . . . . . . . . . 88.02 target 103.00
GOT . . . . . . 2.25 target 3.40 confirmed

Down

FWLT . . . . .71.30 target 63.00
GOOG . . . . .535.00 target 470.00 confirmed
GS . . . . . . . .161.21 target 119.00
RIMM. . . . . 125.00 target 112.73 confirmed
SOLF . . . . . 19.42 target 9.67 confirmed
V . . . . . . . . . 77.50 target 65.00
JRCC . . . . . 49.54 target 37.83
QQQQ . . . . 47.82 target 45.00 confirmed


Option Watches

DRYS calls
GOOG puts
GS puts
POT calls
SOLF puts
AUY calls
QID calls
USO calls

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Seasonal Research 6/26/08

Breakout Watches

Up

ILMN. . . . 80.00 Target 108.00 confirmed
KGC . . . . 22.00 Target 26.00 confirmed
GG. . . . . . 46.25 Target 58.00
AZK . . . . 5.30 Target 7.40
NFG . . . . 59.00 Target 63.71


Down

BMRN 31.00 Target 21.00 confirmed
GILD . . . . 56.96 Target 60.00 52.50


Option Watches

ILMN call
KGC call
GG call
LG call
BMRN put
GILD put

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily Research 6/26/08

Up

DRYS . . . . . 87.55 Target 97.24
ENER . . . . .84.09 Target 90.00
JRCC . . . . . 62.85 Target 70.00
GOT . . . . . . 2.25 Target 3.40 confirmed

Down

FWLT . . . . . . 71.30 Target 63.00 confirmed
GOOG . . . .535 Target 470 confirmed
RIMM . . . . 125 Target 112 confirmed
V . . . . . . . . . 80 Target 67.70 confirmed
QQQQ . . . . 47.82 Target 44.85 confirmed

Option Watches

ENER call
GOOG put
RIMM put
FWLT put
QID call
QQQQ put
AUY call

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Seasonal Research 6/25/08

Breakout Watches

Up

ILMN . . . . 86.00 Target 95.00
GILD . . . . 56.96 Target 60.00
KGC . . . . 22.00 Target 26.00
AZK . . . . 5.30 Target 7.40
EGN . . . . 80.00 Target 90.00
LG . . . . . 41.55 Target 45.00
NFG . . . . 59.00 Target 63.71


Down

BMRN 31.00 Target 21.00

Option Watches

ILMN call
BMRN put
GG call
LG call

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE


Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily Research 6/25/08

Breakout Watches

Up

ENER . . . . .84.06 Target 90.00
GOOG . . . . 580 Target 645
POT . . . . . . 231 Target 241
GOT . . . . . . 2.25 Target 3.40 confirmed

Down

GOOG . . . .535 Target 470
RIMM . . . . 125 Target 112
AAPL . . . . . 171.64 Target 150


Option Watches

ENER call
PCU call
QQQQ put

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Seasonal Research 6/24/08

Breakout Watches

Up

ILMN . . . . 85.02 Target 91.24
EGN . . . . . 77.51 Target 82.03

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily Research 6/24/08

Breakout Watches

Up

ENER . . . . 81.97 Target 94.26 High Volume Alert
JRCC . . . . .63.95 Target 82.85 High Volume Alert

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE




Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Seasonal Research 6/23/08

Breakout Watches

Up

ILMN . . . . . 85.07 Target 91.55
GILD . . . . . .55.87 Target 58.93
LG . . . . . . . . 44.18 Target 43.26


Option Watches

ILMN calls
BMRN puts
GILD calls
EGN calls
LG calls


Possible Chart Patterns Forming

AZK symmetrical triangle
BMRN Triple top break down?
EGN cup and handle?
GG triple top
GILD 3 rising valleys
ILMN Breakout from Ascending Triangle
KGC Double Bottom

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily Research 6/23/08

Breakout Watches

Up

POT . . . . . 242.92 Target 269.00
RIMM . . . .148.30 Target 163.90
TRA . . . . . .56.20 Target 63.30
ENER . . . . .80.03 Target 92.16 confirmed
JRCC . . . . . 64.28 Target 83.54 High Volume Alert

Down

ABK . . . . . . 1.68 Target .21

Option Watches

FWLT calls
PCU calls
GOOG calls/puts
POT calls
RIMM calls
TRA calls
ENER calls
QQQQ puts
JRCC calls
AAPL puts


Possible Chart Patterns Forming

QQQQ double top confirmed
PCU break out from down trend
AAPL possible double top
GOOG symmetrical triangle
TRA break out from symmetrical triangle

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Seasonal Research 6/21/08

This is my first research post on my July seasonal stock picks. I will continue to make separate posts for seasonal stocks and my regular plays to keep things as simple and organized as possible. I am currently researching seasonal plays in three sectors, all which historical data shows you should begin the positions near the end of July. Each has a different end timing though. Biotech ends in March, Gold and Silver end in September (forward called Gold as no silver stocks made the cut) and Utilities end the beginning of January.

Breakout Watches

Up

ILMN . . . . .85.11 Target 91.10
GILD . . . . . 55.88 Target 58.95
EGN . . . . . . 77.54 Target 82.09
LG . . . . . . . .41.20 Target 43.27 high volume alert

Down

BMRN . . . . 31.99 Target 29.55

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily Research 6/20/08

Breakout Watches

Up

RIMM . . . .148.27 Target 164.00
TRA . . . . . .56.21 Target 63.31
ENER . . . . .80.00 Target 91.98
JRCC . . . . . 62.46 Target 80.93 High Volume Alert

Down

ABK . . . . . . 1.70 Target .53

Option Watches

PCU call
RIMM call earnings released in June
QQQQ call/put
TRA call/put
GOOG call/put
AAPL call/put
ENER call
FWLT call
JRCC call High Volume Alert


Possible Chart Patterns Forming

PCU: Broke out of downward trading channel temporarily but closed in channel. Needs to break and hold 110 to start upward trend. *PCU 3 to 1 split record date June 30th.

FWLT: close below 71.33 would reconfirm double top.

GOOG: Tested and closed at lower support of symmetrical triangle pattern.

TRA: Toppy? Needs to break back over $55.00 to resume upward trend.

HTE: Threw back and broke downward from symmetrical triangle. Downside target 22.38. I will start looking to add shares under 22.50. Great dividend stock, pays monthly. Next record date June 23, 2008.

QQQQ: Closed below the 47.82 double top confirmation line for a second time. If it continues the downward trend (I'm still not convinced yet) think QID.

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily Research 6/19/08

Breakout Watches

Up

POT . . . . . .243.20 Target 269.30
RIMM . . . .146.33 Target 162.10 confirmed
TRA . . . . . .55.60 Target 62.68
ENER . . . . .78.82 Target 90.19 High Volume Alert
JRCC . . . . . 62.04 Target 80.55 High Volume Alert 475% over average!!!
Down

ABK . . . . . . 1.71 Target .54

Option Watches

PCU call/put
RIMM call earnings released in June
QQQQ call
TRA call
POT call
GOOG call
ENER call High Volume Alert
JRCC call/put High Volume Alert


Possible Chart Patterns Forming

HTE throw back, possible breakdown.
GOOG and AAPL both test 50 dma today and bounced.

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily Research 6/18/08

Breakout Watches

Up

POT . . . . . .243.62 Target 269.80
RIMM . . . .146.13 Target 162.10
TRA . . . . . .56.29 Target 63.50
ENER . . . . .77.46 Target 88.46 High Volume Alert
HTE . . . . . . 25.86 Target 27.60
PCX . . . . . . 159.48 Target 186.40 confirmed High Volume Alert

Down

ABK . . . . . . 1.69 Target .53
NOC . . . . . .69.21 Target 66.54 High Volume Alert

Option Watches

PCU call/put
RIMM call earnings released in June
QQQQ call/put
TRA call
POT call
ENER call High Volume Alert
JRCC call High Volume Alert
PCX put High Volume Alert


Possible Chart Patterns Forming

QQQQ double top almost confirmed today.

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily Research ~ 6/17/08

Breakout Watches

Up

RIMM . . . .143.86 Target 160.12
ENER . . . . .78.95 Target 90.30 High Volume Alert
HTE . . . . . . 25.85 Target 27.59
PCX . . . . . . 159.24 Target 185.10 High Volume Alert

Down

ABK . . . . . . 1.71 Target .56


Round Trip Watches

PCU call/put
DRYS call High Volume Alert
GS put High Volume Alert
RIMM call/put earnings released in June
QQQQ call
TRA call
AAPL call
POT call
PCX put High Volume Alert

Possible Chart Patterns Forming

This newly added section is for possible patterns that I see while looking at the charts each day. Since I have not studied all of these formations, they could be misidentified. As time permits I will be using them as case studies as I am doing with FWLT and AAPL for learning the double top using Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.

V: Triple top forming?

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily Research 6/16/08

Breakout Watches

Up

POT . . . . . 229.11 Target 253.20 confirmed
RIMM . . . .143.73 Target 159.20
TRA . . . . . .51.53 Target 58.23 confirmed
JRCC . . . . . 49.34 Target 62.30 confirmed High Volume Alert


Round Trip Watches

PCU call/put
GS call/put earnings 6/17/08 before market open
RIMM call/put earnings released in June
QQQQ call
TRA call
FWLT call double top busted
AAPL call
POT call


Possible Chart Patterns Forming

This newly added section is for possible patterns that I see while looking at the charts each day. Since I have not studied all of these formations, they could be misidentified. As time permits I will be using them as case studies as I am doing with FWLT and AAPL for learning the double top using Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.

POT: 3 rising valley
FWLT: busted double top
SOLF: scallops ascending?
GOOG: symmetrical triangle
RIMM: busted double top?
V: symmetrical triangle
TRA: break up from symmetrical triangle
ENER: forming 3 rising valley?
HTE: break up from symmetrical triangle
NOC: scallops descending
JASO: double top reversing?
QQQQ: busted double top?
AUY: down trending channel
GOT: descending triangle
AAPL: failed double top
ABK: Bump and run reversal bottoms.

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE


Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily Research 6/14/08

Breakout Watches

Up

POT . . . . . 229.04 Target 252.70
PCX . . . . . . 143.65 Target 166.90 confirmed
ENER . . . . 66.46 Target 75.23 confirmed High Volume Alert
JRCC . . . . . 49.34 Target 62.30
TRA . . . . . .51.55 Target 58.35

Down

ABK . . . . . 1.75 Target 0.59


Round Trip Watches

PCU call
GS call earnings released in June
RIMM call earnings released in June
ENER call
QQQQ call
JRCC call
TRA call
FWLT call double top busted
PCX call
AAPL call
POT call
SOLF call

Possible Chart Patterns Forming

This newly added section is for possible patterns that I see while looking at the charts each day. Since I have not studied all of these formations, they could be misidentified. As time permits I will be using them as case studies as I am doing with FWLT and AAPL for learning the double top using Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.

POT: 3 rising valley, symmetrical triangle
SOLF: 3 rising valley
GOOG: symmetrical triangle
HTE: symmetrical triangle

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Earnings Research 6/14/08

I have researched earnings dates for my daily research list as of 6/13/08. Although I sold my LNCR position, and do not plan on reentering (not that it is a bad play, if earnings go well, LNCR has more upward potential), I will go ahead and leave the earnings date posted until it passes, in case some of you grabbed the stock or option.

While checking out the event calendar for each company on my list there were a couple of other things worth noting here.

V announce a dividend.

ENER, POT, and PCX all made 52 week highs, while ABK made a 52 week low.

Click here for other earnings releases occurring the week of 6/16/08 to 6/20/08.

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily Research 6/12/08

Breakout Watches

Up

POT . . . . . 227.69 Target 251.30
PCX . . . . . . 143.45 Target 165.70
ENER . . . . 66.46 Target 75.18
JRCC . . . . . 48.69 Target 61.16

Down

ABK . . . . . 1.70 Target 0.58
PCX . . . . . . 133.15 Target 110.90
GOT . . . . . .1.82 Target 1.21

Round Trip Watches

PCU call
GS call/put earnings released in June
RIMM put earnings released in June
ENER call/put
QQQQ call/put
LNCR call volume alert
JRCC call
TRA call
FWLT put double top confirmed

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE


Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily Research 6/11/08

Breakout Watches

Up

POT . . . . . 227.77 Target 251.60
PCX . . . . . . 143.13 Target 165.40
ENER . . . . 66.41 Target 74.85

Down

ABK . . . . . 1.69 Target 0.58
PCX . . . . . . 132.81 Target 110.60
GOT . . . . . .1.82 Target 1.21

Round Trip Watches

DRYS put
POT call/put
PCU call
GOOG call/put
GS put earnings released in June
RIMM put earnings released in June
ENER call
QQQQ call
EXM call/put
LNCR call

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily Research 6/10/08

Breakout Watches

Up

POT . . . . . 223.76 Target 247.10
PCX . . . . . . 142.60 Target 165.10

Down

ABK . . . . . 2.24 Target 0.75 confirmed
PCX . . . . . . 132.14 Target 109.70

Round Trip Watches


DRYS call/put
POT call/put
PCU call
FWLT put
GOOG call
GS call earnings released in June
RIMM call earnings released in June
ENER put
QQQQ call
EXM call/put

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE


Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily Research 6/9/08

Breakout Watches

Up

POT . . . . . 221.74 Target 245 confirmed
ENER . . . . 66.39 Target 74.65
JRCC . . . . . 42.37 Target 53.59 confirmed
PCX . . . . . . 142.68 Target 165.00

Down

ABK . . . . . 2.24 Target 0.75 confirmed
PCX . . . . . . 132.24 Target 109.00

Round Trip Watches

DRYS call/put
POT call/put
PCU call
FWLT call
GOOG call
GS put earnings released in June
RIMM call earnings released in June
ENER call
NOC call
QQQQ call
JRCC call
PCX call/put

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily Research 6/8/08

Breakout Watches

Up

POT . . . . . 221.68 Target 244.50
ENER . . . . 66.20 Target 74.55
JRCC . . . . . 42.32 Target 53.20

Down

ABK . . . . . 2.28 Target 1.00

Round Trip Watches

Note: Many of my watch list stocks were pushed to support resistance levels with the huge down day on Friday, and could go either way.

DRYS call / put
PCU call/put
FWLT call/put
GOOG call
GS call/put (earnings release 6/17)
RIMM put (earnings release 6/25)
ENER call/put
JRCC call
PCX call/put

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Earnings Research 6/8/2008

As I outlined on my Road to Early Retirement blog post on June 6, 2008, I will no longer be tracking earnings plays each week. However knowing when the earnings dates are for the positions you hold as well as the stocks that you are following is very important. For this reason I have place an Earnings Release list pinned near the top of this blog. This will list all of the earnings releases that I have scheduled on my calendar. This list will be updated weekly, and should cover all of the stocks on my posted daily research as the dates become available to me.

In addition I will be noting in the right margin of my research paper an E followed by the number representing the month of the earnings release.

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily and Earnings Research 6/5/08

Sorry for the delay, I took the night off, and now I am having issues with the upload. I wont be able to get these online until after market.

Edited to add...I skipped a step in my scanning process so the files were too big to upload. Again, sorry for the delay.



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Earnings Research 6/4/08

Breakout Watches

UP

TTWO . . . . . 27.63
CMGI . . . . . . 23.12

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily Research 6/4/08

Breakout Watches

Up

POT . . . . . 214.28
ENER . . . . 62.80
DNR . . . . . 56.40
JRCC . . . . .38.78
PCX . . . . . .125.69

Down

ABK . . . . . 2.79 confirmed
PCX . . . . . 117.63


Round Trip Watches

POT calls
PCU puts
FWLT calls/puts
SOLF calls
GOOG calls
RIMM calls
ENER calls
EXM calls
PCX calls/puts
JASO puts

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE


Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Earnings Research 6/3/08

Currently holding the JTX calls. Will be selling most of them by end of trading tomorrow. There is a big gap up that could be filled, so I may hold a few contracts over just to see what happens.

Breakout Watch

Up

TTWO . . . . . 27.53
CMGI . . . . . . 15.35

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE


Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily Research 6/3/08

Breakout Watches

UP

POT . . . . . 211.65
ENER . . . . 62.87
PCX . . . . . . 123.64

Down

ABK . . . . . 2.84
PCX . . . . . 115.75

Round Trip Watches

DRYS calls
POT calls
PCU puts
ENER calls
PCX calls/puts
TRA calls
GS puts (man I could have made some money on these today!)

I wouldn't play the options but watch GOT to start an upward swing here. There has been insider trading, and it just broke through a major resistance today as well as the 10 day moving average finally crossing above the 50 day moving average. GOT has been as high as 13.95 in the past year.

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE


Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Earnings Research 6/2/08

Picked up GES and JTX calls today.

Decided against playing TOL and SAI for tomorrow, so removed from the list. APWR removed because there are not options.

Added NSM: Semiconductor. Earnings estimate .27. Positive earnings surprise 14 of the past 15 quarters. Price looks to have been consolidating, chart is looking good. Earnings release will be Thursday 6/5 after the market closes.

Breakout Watch

TTWO. . . . . 27.51

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE


Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Daily Research 6/2/08

Breakout Watches

UP

POT. . . . . 211.65
EXM . . . . 56.57
JRCC . . . . 38.79 Confirmed

DOWN

ABK . . . . . 2.87

Round Trip Option Watches

DRYS calls
PCU calls/puts
SOLF calls
TRA calls
ENER calls
GS puts

Earnings Positions Held

GES Tuesday after market close.
JTX Thursday before market open.

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE


Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Earnings Research 6/1/08

One of the things that I have noticed is often a company's options will get more interest right before earnings, driving up the premium. I noticed this after playing options into earnings a few times and guessing the correct direction that the stock would take, and yet still losing money.

It stands to reason that people purchasing the options at a low point right in the days before the earnings release could sell before earnings and make a profit. While doing this could see you leaving money on the table, that is not my worry here. I try not to worry about money left on the table, as there is always more to be made elsewhere.

Anyway, I have decided to pick a few stocks that have earnings releases between now and Monday 6/9/08 to round trip to see if I can grab some profit as the interest peaks.

http://www.earnings.com/highlight.asp?date=20080603&client=cb

This spreadsheet will look slightly different than the others, as I will have the date of earnings release above the stock, and then in the left margin you will see either the time of the release (listed as California time as not to confuse my self, add 3 hours to convert to market time) or AM/BM. AM stands for After Market, BM stands for Before Market. If there is a ? then I cannot find a release time for that stocks earnings.

I didn't want to rescan, as it is getting late, however APWR does not have an option play so I took it off the watch list.

A few notes, extra notes since these are not stocks I normally play.

TOL: Housing industry, loses last two quarters. Estimated Earnings -.87. Lost money the last two quarters. Everything says that this stock should be heading south, except the trading channel. However it is sitting at strong resistance, and the 3 support levels below are all single strength. The put has slightly more interest than the call.

GES: Retail industry. Estimated earnings .46. Has delivered earnings surprises 3 of the past 4 quarters. Recently had a big upward movement, testing the resistance at the 200 day moving average. Interest approximately 3/2 in favor of the calls, I think that is the way to go.

SAI: Technical services. "SAIC, Inc. provides scientific, engineering, systems integration, and technical services and solutions to various branches of the U.S. military, agencies of the U.S. Department of Defense, the intelligence community, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, other U.S. Government civil agencies, state and local government agencies, foreign governments, and customers in selected commercial markets." 1 negative surprise followed by 3 positive earnings surprises. Earnings estimate .22. Chart looks good, and there is no put interest in this stock at all despite it's nearing a 52 week high.

VIP: Russian communication stock. Considered an emerging market. Near the top of it's trading channel but has some room to go up before hitting the 52 week high if it breaks through. 2 positive and 2 negative earnings surprises out of the past 4.

JTX: Tax services. This earnings report covers the best quarter of the year for this company, since it is a tax service, and this is a year that many people will be filing taxes that normally wouldn't to receive the government stimulus checks. The stock had a big gap down the end of February (I will have to look at why tomorrow, it's getting late, and the chart looks like it's trying to raise up off the bottom. Despite negative surprises 2 of the last 4 quarters, this one may be worth carrying a partial position over into earnings. $2.08 earnings estimate.

TTWO: Gaming software. Has been consolidating since the gap up slightly before the last earnings release. Positive earnings surprises 5 of the past 5 quarters, but gain only 1 of the past 5. Earnings estimate 1.12. HUGE interest in both the puts and calls for this stock. Watch for breakout 27.63.

CMGI: Software. No resistance above. Watch for breakout 15.35. No put interest in this stock. Young stock, but great earnings surprise delivered last quarter. Earnings estimate .08.

PLL: Industrial goods, diversified machinery. Earnings estimate .50. Negative earnings surprises 2 of the past 4 quarters. Looks to be at the top of the trading channel, and boardering on overbought. Has the least option interest of the stocks on this list, with interest almost equally divided between the puts and calls.

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE


Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.