One of the things that I have noticed is often a company's options will get more interest right before earnings, driving up the premium. I noticed this after playing options into earnings a few times and guessing the correct direction that the stock would take, and yet still losing money.
It stands to reason that people purchasing the options at a low point right in the days before the earnings release could sell before earnings and make a profit. While doing this could see you leaving money on the table, that is not my worry here. I try not to worry about money left on the table, as there is always more to be made elsewhere.
Anyway, I have decided to pick a few stocks that have earnings releases between now and Monday 6/9/08 to round trip to see if I can grab some profit as the interest peaks.
http://www.earnings.com/highlight.asp?date=20080603&client=cbThis spreadsheet will look slightly different than the others, as I will have the date of earnings release above the stock, and then in the left margin you will see either the time of the release (listed as California time as not to confuse my self, add 3 hours to convert to market time) or AM/BM. AM stands for After Market, BM stands for Before Market. If there is a ? then I cannot find a release time for that stocks earnings.
I didn't want to rescan, as it is getting late, however APWR does not have an option play so I took it off the watch list.
A few notes, extra notes since these are not stocks I normally play.
TOL: Housing industry, loses last two quarters. Estimated Earnings -.87. Lost money the last two quarters. Everything says that this stock should be heading south, except the trading channel. However it is sitting at strong resistance, and the 3 support levels below are all single strength. The put has slightly more interest than the call.
GES: Retail industry. Estimated earnings .46. Has delivered earnings surprises 3 of the past 4 quarters. Recently had a big upward movement, testing the resistance at the 200 day moving average. Interest approximately 3/2 in favor of the calls, I think that is the way to go.
SAI: Technical services. "SAIC, Inc. provides scientific, engineering, systems integration, and technical services and solutions to various branches of the U.S. military, agencies of the U.S. Department of Defense, the intelligence community, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, other U.S. Government civil agencies, state and local government agencies, foreign governments, and customers in selected commercial markets." 1 negative surprise followed by 3 positive earnings surprises. Earnings estimate .22. Chart looks good, and there is no put interest in this stock at all despite it's nearing a 52 week high.
VIP: Russian communication stock. Considered an emerging market. Near the top of it's trading channel but has some room to go up before hitting the 52 week high if it breaks through. 2 positive and 2 negative earnings surprises out of the past 4.
JTX: Tax services. This earnings report covers the best quarter of the year for this company, since it is a tax service, and this is a year that many people will be filing taxes that normally wouldn't to receive the government stimulus checks. The stock had a big gap down the end of February (I will have to look at why tomorrow, it's getting late, and the chart looks like it's trying to raise up off the bottom. Despite negative surprises 2 of the last 4 quarters, this one may be worth carrying a partial position over into earnings. $2.08 earnings estimate.
TTWO: Gaming software. Has been consolidating since the gap up slightly before the last earnings release. Positive earnings surprises 5 of the past 5 quarters, but gain only 1 of the past 5. Earnings estimate 1.12. HUGE interest in both the puts and calls for this stock.
Watch for breakout 27.63. CMGI: Software. No resistance above.
Watch for breakout 15.35. No put interest in this stock. Young stock, but great earnings surprise delivered last quarter. Earnings estimate .08.
PLL: Industrial goods, diversified machinery. Earnings estimate .50. Negative earnings surprises 2 of the past 4 quarters. Looks to be at the top of the trading channel, and boardering on overbought. Has the least option interest of the stocks on this list, with interest almost equally divided between the puts and calls.
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Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.
